Friday, August 20, 2010

P-BEAT: A Process-Based Economic Analysis Tool

NASA Glenn Research Center is developing P-BEAT (Process-Based Economic Analysis Tool): an engineering-focused economic analysis code to be used in performing engineering trade studies and technology investment decision analyses for all phases of a product life cycle. Version 1.0 of the code, currently available upon request, combines Decision Analysis and Economic Analysis capabilities in a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet-based format. Included with the deterministic economic analysis tool is an Excel add-in simulation module (CpSimulation) that can be used to perform uncertainty and statistics analyses.

The initial release version of P-BEAT estimates development and production costs using an innovative process rollup-based methodology to calculate product complexity and its impact on cost. It offers multi-user capabilities, network-based configuration control, and data security features. It provides Decision-Support tools that can be used to generate utility curves that quantify stakeholder "desirability" and a pair-wise method to determine system attribute priorities. P-BEAT includes an extensive database of over 14,000 materials and hundreds of manufacturing processes plus context-sensitive help and graphical tools for sensitivity analyses and identification of cost drivers, as well as the CpSimulation add-in module for uncertainty and cost-risk analyses.

The P-BEAT architecture is template-based and provides four usage modes (straight cost roll-up mode and dual-pane analogy mode, each using either the innovative process-based methodology or a traditional high-level parametric methodology), presented in a multi-paned graphical user interface with default values and bounds-checking for all user input parameters, along with context sensitive help and parameter-specific charts and tables. Depending on available data, the fidelity of the analyses can range from first-order, system-level trade studies to detailed, investment-grade, component-level product cost breakdowns. This allows the tool to be used to manage product cost throughout its full life-cycle from conception to production to retirement.

Compared to traditional cost estimation tools, which are not usually intended for use by engineers, P-BEAT provides the following benefits:

• Predicted costs based on known, actual cost of similar products: Estimates are credible to engineers.
• Self-documenting studies describe why costs vary in terms understandable to engineers and managers.
• Fast turn-around - an experienced practitioner can generate a first-order cost estimate in about 15 minutes when working with product development team members.
• Allows studies using high level parametric inputs and/or detailed design characteristics, such as design tolerance and material alternatives with a single tool. Can use the same tool throughout all life cycle phases.
• Decision module provides a hybrid Analytic Hierarchy Process/Utility Function method for evaluating multiple criteria in a consistent manner for any number of design trades.
• Cost-estimating relationships, inputs, and results are archived in a Microsoft Access database to ensure both access security and data integrity.
• Built-in automation mode allows batch-processing of thousands of related studies for regression analysis and cost-driver assessment.
• Context-sensitive help system provides on-the-fly user instruction as well as model and cost estimation documentation.

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